Friday, February 5, 2016

Intimacy by the Numbers

tl;dr The various probabilities for each New Life Principle
After I added the stat game/popularity contest to the Manager, I noticed that players were picking "Protect the Young" over "Survival of the Fittest" at about a 3:1 ratio.

No principle is as unpopular as "Survival of the Fittest" (even "Collective Toil" is 40/60 versus "Accept Darkness") and I wanted to be able to say exactly why, so me and my buddy Jeff decided to crunch the numbers.

The image above is the top-line summary of some spreadsheet-fu Jeff whipped up to answer the question.

The sheet is public, if you're interested in taking a look.

Long story short, "Survival of the Fittest" takes the natural (i.e. single die) 30% probability of female survivor death and increases it to 51% while "Protect the Young" reduces the probability of that outcome to 9%.

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